000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240239 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 2 13 37 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 14 32 38 TROPICAL STORM X 2 9 26 59 48 24 HURRICANE 99 98 91 73 25 7 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 7 20 35 43 21 6 2 HUR CAT 2 58 43 34 19 3 X X HUR CAT 3 32 30 18 9 1 X X HUR CAT 4 3 5 4 2 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 95KT 90KT 80KT 60KT 45KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 28 5(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 5 72(77) 11(88) 2(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA CLARION 50 1 33(34) 22(56) 3(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) ISLA CLARION 64 X 13(13) 16(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI