000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121448 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 1500 UTC SUN AUG 12 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 2 9 22 TROP DEPRESSION 7 15 14 11 14 27 37 TROPICAL STORM 90 76 68 60 59 53 38 HURRICANE 3 8 17 28 25 11 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 7 14 22 20 10 2 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 4 3 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 86 3(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA SOCORRO 50 10 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 20(25) 19(44) 10(54) 1(55) 1(56) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) X(19) 1(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI