000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150844 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 5 18 42 55 60 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 16 26 32 26 22 TROPICAL STORM 32 27 37 45 24 19 17 HURRICANE 68 71 43 11 3 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 63 53 30 9 3 1 1 HUR CAT 2 4 14 9 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 4 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 80KT 60KT 45KT 35KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 3(29) 2(31) 1(32) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 1 15(16) 35(51) 4(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) P MALDONADO 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 3 57(60) 8(68) 1(69) X(69) 2(71) X(71) P ANGEL 50 X 18(18) 5(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) P ANGEL 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 3 45(48) 7(55) 1(56) 1(57) 1(58) 1(59) HUATULCO 50 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) HUATULCO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART