000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 4 17 39 53 56 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 15 25 31 27 26 TROPICAL STORM 58 34 37 46 26 19 18 HURRICANE 42 65 45 13 3 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 39 52 32 10 3 1 1 HUR CAT 2 2 10 10 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 3 4 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 80KT 60KT 45KT 35KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 1 6( 7) 32(39) 7(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ANGEL 34 2 51(53) 15(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) P ANGEL 50 X 13(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) P ANGEL 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 1 45(46) 16(62) 1(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) HUATULCO 50 X 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) HUATULCO 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAPACHULA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA