000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 12 31 45 50 TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 9 18 23 25 21 TROPICAL STORM 88 43 36 35 36 28 26 HURRICANE 11 56 54 35 10 3 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 10 47 36 22 8 3 2 HUR CAT 2 1 7 12 9 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 5 4 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 70KT 80KT 80KT 60KT 45KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 1(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 2(19) 1(20) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 10(34) 2(36) 1(37) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 1 4( 5) 24(29) 16(45) 5(50) 3(53) X(53) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) 2(24) X(24) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 1 34(35) 32(67) 4(71) 2(73) 2(75) X(75) P ANGEL 50 X 4( 4) 20(24) 3(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 34 1 31(32) 29(61) 4(65) 2(67) 3(70) 1(71) HUATULCO 50 X 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) HUATULCO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAPACHULA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) P SAN JOSE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN