000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020259 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 13 29 66 66 TROP DEPRESSION X 10 8 21 17 24 23 TROPICAL STORM 3 49 62 42 31 10 11 HURRICANE 97 40 28 25 23 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 42 34 22 18 16 X X HUR CAT 2 45 4 4 5 5 X X HUR CAT 3 10 1 2 2 2 X X HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 75KT 60KT 40KT 30KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 6 39(45) 17(62) 3(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) P ABREOJOS 50 1 7( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) P ABREOJOS 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 95 X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) LA PAZ 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 48 28(76) 3(79) 2(81) 2(83) X(83) 1(84) LORETO 50 2 13(15) 4(19) X(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) LORETO 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 3(16) X(16) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 6(26) 3(29) X(29) BAHIA KINO 34 2 5( 7) 19(26) 11(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 3 10(13) 15(28) 6(34) 5(39) 2(41) X(41) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 4 7(11) 6(17) 3(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) CULICAN 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN