000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 X 1 2 10 TROP DEPRESSION 15 10 6 2 2 7 22 TROPICAL STORM 83 79 63 32 30 42 51 HURRICANE 2 10 31 66 68 50 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 9 27 41 40 34 14 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 17 17 11 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 6 9 5 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 75KT 80KT 75KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 4(38) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 4(33) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 6(29) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 13(52) 2(54) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN