000 FOPZ13 KNHC 081442 PWSEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 1500 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 5 27 36 46 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 25 39 38 35 TROPICAL STORM 15 49 68 60 31 24 18 HURRICANE 85 50 22 11 3 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 80 43 18 9 2 2 1 HUR CAT 2 5 5 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 65KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 7 79(86) 3(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 145W 50 X 40(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 145W 64 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) 1(13) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE