000 FOPZ13 KNHC 080234 PWSEP3 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 0300 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 2 19 28 47 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 3 12 38 39 35 TROPICAL STORM 3 34 51 61 39 31 18 HURRICANE 97 65 46 26 4 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 67 54 37 21 4 3 1 HUR CAT 2 27 9 7 3 X X X HUR CAT 3 3 2 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 1 9(10) 54(64) 11(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN