000 FOPZ13 KNHC 021432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 1500 UTC THU AUG 02 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 137N 1314W 34 16 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 12 137N 1314W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 137N 1314W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 139N 1335W 34 X 16(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 24 139N 1335W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 139N 1335W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 142N 1352W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 36 142N 1352W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 142N 1352W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 143N 1373W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 48 143N 1373W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 143N 1373W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 145N 1420W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 72 145N 1420W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 145N 1420W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 145N 1455W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 96 145N 1455W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 96 145N 1455W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 145N 1495W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 145N 1495W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 145N 1495W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN