000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020840 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 134N 1315W 34 43 5(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 12 134N 1315W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 134N 1315W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 135N 1335W 34 X 32(32) 10(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 24 135N 1335W 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 135N 1335W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 138N 1352W 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 9(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) 36 138N 1352W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 36 138N 1352W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 142N 1371W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 9(37) 1(38) X(38) 48 142N 1371W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 48 142N 1371W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 145N 1410W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 1(25) 72 145N 1410W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 72 145N 1410W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 145N 1450W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 96 145N 1450W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 96 145N 1450W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 145N 1490W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 120 145N 1490W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 145N 1490W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI