000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 136N 1300W 34 18 8(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 12 136N 1300W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 136N 1300W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 139N 1317W 34 X 25(25) 13(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) 24 139N 1317W 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 139N 1317W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 141N 1334W 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) 36 141N 1334W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 36 141N 1334W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 144N 1353W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 8(35) 1(36) X(36) 48 144N 1353W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 48 144N 1353W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 148N 1388W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 1(25) 72 148N 1388W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 72 148N 1388W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 149N 1425W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 96 149N 1425W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 96 149N 1425W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 150N 1460W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 120 150N 1460W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 150N 1460W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN