000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 1500 UTC WED AUG 01 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 133N 1272W 34 41 10(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 12 133N 1272W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 133N 1272W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 135N 1290W 34 3 35(38) 11(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 24 135N 1290W 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 135N 1290W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 137N 1306W 34 X 11(11) 27(38) 8(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) 36 137N 1306W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 137N 1306W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 139N 1325W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) 48 139N 1325W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 48 139N 1325W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 140N 1360W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 2(27) 72 140N 1360W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 72 140N 1360W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 140N 1390W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) 96 140N 1390W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 96 140N 1390W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 140N 1425W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 120 140N 1425W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 140N 1425W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 45 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME