000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010830 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 0900 UTC WED AUG 01 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 131N 1268W 34 38 12(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 12 131N 1268W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 131N 1268W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 132N 1287W 34 2 36(38) 10(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 24 132N 1287W 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 132N 1287W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 133N 1306W 34 X 8( 8) 30(38) 9(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) 36 133N 1306W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 133N 1306W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 135N 1324W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) 48 135N 1324W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 48 135N 1324W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 135N 1360W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) 1(27) 72 135N 1360W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 72 135N 1360W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 135N 1395W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 96 135N 1395W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 96 135N 1395W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 135N 1430W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 120 135N 1430W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 135N 1430W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 45 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH