000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010223 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 0300 UTC WED AUG 01 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 131N 1259W 34 24 6(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 12 131N 1259W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 131N 1259W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 135N 1282W 34 1 20(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 24 135N 1282W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 135N 1282W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 135N 1305W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 8(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) 36 135N 1305W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 135N 1305W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 135N 1325W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) 48 135N 1325W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 135N 1325W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 135N 1365W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 2(21) 72 135N 1365W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 72 135N 1365W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 135N 1400W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) 96 135N 1400W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 96 135N 1400W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 135N 1445W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 120 135N 1445W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 120 135N 1445W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 40 45 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA