141 FOPZ12 KNHC 181454 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 1500 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 27(33) 20(53) 5(58) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 18(47) 5(52) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 6(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 11(22) 5(27) 3(30) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 15N 105W 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) 15N 110W 34 16 6(22) 4(26) 3(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) 15N 110W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 4( 6) 15(21) 32(53) 34(87) 1(88) 1(89) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 37(51) 3(54) X(54) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 2(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 21(41) 17(58) 3(61) 1(62) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) X(16) 1(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART