000 FOPZ12 KNHC 070856 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) 1(10) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 41(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) P ABREOJOS 34 1 11(12) 62(74) 7(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 20(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 22 4(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JOSE CABO 34 13 5(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LA PAZ 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 4 41(45) 37(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 25N 115W 50 X 5( 5) 37(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN