000 FOPZ12 KNHC 160233 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM TARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 3(16) X(16) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 12 18(30) 6(36) 1(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 35 12(47) 4(51) 2(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) MANZANILLO 50 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG