000 FOPZ12 KNHC 150852 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM TARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018 0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 9(22) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 5(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 2(17) 4(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 8(26) 7(33) 1(34) 7(41) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 6(17) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 5(13) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 15(34) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN