000 FOPZ12 KNHC 160845 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 0900 UTC WED JUL 16 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 3 3 2 2 3 TROP DEPRESSION 36 27 22 18 12 13 20 TROPICAL STORM 63 68 67 63 60 60 63 HURRICANE 1 3 9 17 26 26 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 8 14 22 21 14 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 3 4 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN