000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 226N 1106W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 226N 1106W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12 226N 1106W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 232N 1097W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 232N 1097W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 232N 1097W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 238N 1091W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 238N 1091W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 238N 1091W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 245N 1085W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 245N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 245N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI