000 FOPZ12 KNHC 230234 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 226N 1113W 34 67 2(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 12 226N 1113W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 226N 1113W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 231N 1107W 34 10 11(21) 2(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 24 231N 1107W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 231N 1107W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 237N 1100W 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 36 237N 1100W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 237N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 240N 1097W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 48 240N 1097W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 240N 1097W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 245N 1095W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 72 245N 1095W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 245N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 255N 1095W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 96 255N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 255N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 30 25 20 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE