000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220831 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 0900 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 216N 1125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 216N 1125W 50 9 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 12 216N 1125W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 223N 1120W 34 39 16(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 1(58) 24 223N 1120W 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 24 223N 1120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 228N 1115W 34 7 20(27) 5(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 36 228N 1115W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 228N 1115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 233N 1109W 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 48 233N 1109W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 48 233N 1109W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 240N 1100W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) 72 240N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 240N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 245N 1095W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 96 245N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 245N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 255N 1095W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 120 255N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 255N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 40 35 30 25 20 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN