000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220239 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 212N 1128W 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 12 212N 1128W 50 34 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 12 212N 1128W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 220N 1123W 34 39 22(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) 1(65) X(65) 24 220N 1123W 50 3 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 24 220N 1123W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 226N 1118W 34 5 26(31) 8(39) 2(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) 36 226N 1118W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 36 226N 1118W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 231N 1113W 34 1 11(12) 10(22) 4(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) 48 231N 1113W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 231N 1113W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 242N 1103W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) 72 242N 1103W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 242N 1103W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 245N 1100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 96 245N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 245N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 250N 1095W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 120 250N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 120 250N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 45 40 35 25 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BERG/BLAKE