000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212035 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 2100 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 208N 1132W 34 95 1(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 208N 1132W 50 61 5(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 12 208N 1132W 64 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 24 216N 1129W 34 54 19(73) 3(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) 24 216N 1129W 50 10 21(31) 3(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 216N 1129W 64 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 223N 1126W 34 10 35(45) 10(55) 3(58) 2(60) X(60) 1(61) 36 223N 1126W 50 1 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) 36 223N 1126W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 230N 1122W 34 1 18(19) 16(35) 5(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) 48 230N 1122W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 48 230N 1122W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 240N 1115W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) 72 240N 1115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 240N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 1110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) 96 250N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 96 250N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 260N 1105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 120 260N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 260N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60 55 50 45 40 30 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI