000 FOPZ12 KNHC 211454 PWSEP2 HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 3(24) X(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 1(16) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 204N 1134W 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 204N 1134W 50 68 5(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 12 204N 1134W 64 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 24 213N 1131W 34 51 24(75) 6(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) 24 213N 1131W 50 12 27(39) 5(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 24 213N 1131W 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 221N 1128W 34 7 40(47) 15(62) 4(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) 36 221N 1128W 50 1 13(14) 11(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 36 221N 1128W 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 48 230N 1125W 34 2 17(19) 21(40) 9(49) 5(54) 2(56) X(56) 48 230N 1125W 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) 48 230N 1125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 245N 1120W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 10(21) 9(30) 4(34) X(34) 72 245N 1120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 245N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 260N 1115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 1(18) 96 260N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 260N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 275N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 120 275N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 275N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60 60 60 55 50 40 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI