000 FOPZ12 KNHC 210831 PWSEP2 HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 0900 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 3(26) 2(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 9(21) 2(23) 2(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 11(22) 4(26) 1(27) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 2(18) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) ISLA CLARION 34 4 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 199N 1135W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 199N 1135W 50 73 5(78) 1(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) 12 199N 1135W 64 22 8(30) X(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 24 208N 1132W 34 58 26(84) 4(88) 1(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 24 208N 1132W 50 18 32(50) 5(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 24 208N 1132W 64 1 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 36 215N 1129W 34 13 46(59) 10(69) 4(73) 2(75) 1(76) 1(77) 36 215N 1129W 50 2 22(24) 10(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) 1(39) 36 215N 1129W 64 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 48 223N 1125W 34 2 27(29) 18(47) 8(55) 5(60) 3(63) 1(64) 48 223N 1125W 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) 48 223N 1125W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 240N 1120W 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 11(34) 5(39) 1(40) 72 240N 1120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 72 240N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 96 255N 1115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 2(22) 96 255N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 96 255N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 270N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 120 270N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 270N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 70 65 60 55 40 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN