000 FOPZ12 KNHC 210236 PWSEP2 HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 0300 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 10(24) 2(26) 2(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 9(20) 3(23) 1(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 11(20) 4(24) 2(26) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 3(17) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 34 5 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 197N 1135W 34 95 2(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 197N 1135W 50 70 6(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 12 197N 1135W 64 21 9(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 24 206N 1131W 34 58 26(84) 4(88) 1(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 24 206N 1131W 50 17 34(51) 4(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 24 206N 1131W 64 1 13(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 36 213N 1128W 34 12 48(60) 10(70) 4(74) 2(76) X(76) 1(77) 36 213N 1128W 50 1 23(24) 10(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 36 213N 1128W 64 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) 48 220N 1125W 34 2 29(31) 19(50) 6(56) 5(61) 3(64) X(64) 48 220N 1125W 50 X 8( 8) 10(18) 5(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) 48 220N 1125W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 235N 1120W 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 10(27) 10(37) 4(41) 2(43) 72 235N 1120W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 72 235N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 96 250N 1115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 5(22) 1(23) 96 250N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 250N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 265N 1115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 120 265N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 265N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 70 65 60 55 45 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE