000 FOPZ12 KNHC 202028 PWSEP2 HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 2100 UTC THU SEP 20 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 12(23) 4(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 12(21) 4(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 11(18) 4(22) 2(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 11(15) 8(23) 3(26) 3(29) 1(30) 1(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 16 13(29) 5(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 185N 1133W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 185N 1133W 50 69 7(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 12 185N 1133W 64 22 8(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 24 195N 1132W 34 54 28(82) 5(87) 2(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 24 195N 1132W 50 13 37(50) 6(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) 24 195N 1132W 64 1 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 36 204N 1129W 34 7 45(52) 17(69) 4(73) 3(76) X(76) 1(77) 36 204N 1129W 50 1 16(17) 16(33) 4(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) 36 204N 1129W 64 X 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 48 212N 1125W 34 2 20(22) 27(49) 8(57) 8(65) 1(66) X(66) 48 212N 1125W 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) 48 212N 1125W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 72 229N 1118W 34 1 2( 3) 10(13) 12(25) 14(39) 4(43) X(43) 72 229N 1118W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) 72 229N 1118W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 245N 1115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 4(23) 1(24) 96 245N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 245N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 265N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 120 265N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 265N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 70 70 65 60 50 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME