000 FOPZ12 KNHC 201452 PWSEP2 HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 1500 UTC THU SEP 20 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 14(23) 4(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 3(23) 1(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) 1(20) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 14(18) 8(26) 4(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 13 29(42) 6(48) 3(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 1 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 178N 1132W 34 95 2(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 178N 1132W 50 68 9(77) 1(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 12 178N 1132W 64 23 11(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 188N 1133W 34 56 29(85) 5(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 24 188N 1133W 50 13 39(52) 6(58) 1(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 24 188N 1133W 64 1 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 36 198N 1131W 34 7 47(54) 17(71) 4(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) 36 198N 1131W 50 1 17(18) 17(35) 4(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42) 36 198N 1131W 64 X 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 48 208N 1126W 34 2 16(18) 27(45) 12(57) 8(65) 1(66) X(66) 48 208N 1126W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) 48 208N 1126W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 72 225N 1115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 13(23) 15(38) 3(41) X(41) 72 225N 1115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) 72 225N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 240N 1110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) 96 240N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 240N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 255N 1105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 120 255N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 120 255N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 70 65 60 50 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN