000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200833 PWSEP2 HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 6(28) 2(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 5(24) 2(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 2(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 13(17) 12(29) 6(35) 4(39) 1(40) 1(41) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 4 33(37) 14(51) 3(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 173N 1130W 34 95 2(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) 12 173N 1130W 50 66 10(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 12 173N 1130W 64 22 12(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 24 183N 1133W 34 52 32(84) 6(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 24 183N 1133W 50 10 42(52) 8(60) 1(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 24 183N 1133W 64 1 17(18) 7(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 36 193N 1131W 34 6 48(54) 19(73) 5(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) 36 193N 1131W 50 X 17(17) 20(37) 6(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) 36 193N 1131W 64 X 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) 48 203N 1127W 34 2 17(19) 29(48) 12(60) 9(69) 1(70) X(70) 48 203N 1127W 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) 48 203N 1127W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 72 220N 1115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 17(41) 5(46) 1(47) 72 220N 1115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) 72 220N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 96 235N 1105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) 5(25) 2(27) 96 235N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 96 235N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 255N 1095W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 120 255N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 120 255N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 75 70 65 55 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI