000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191431 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 2(15) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 11(30) 3(33) 1(34) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 1 13(14) 32(46) 13(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 10(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 159N 1121W 34 88 5(93) 1(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) 12 159N 1121W 50 49 17(66) 2(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 12 159N 1121W 64 19 10(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 24 168N 1132W 34 17 57(74) 9(83) 2(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) 24 168N 1132W 50 1 38(39) 11(50) 2(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 24 168N 1132W 64 X 18(18) 6(24) 2(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) 36 177N 1139W 34 2 40(42) 25(67) 6(73) 5(78) X(78) X(78) 36 177N 1139W 50 X 10(10) 22(32) 8(40) 3(43) 1(44) X(44) 36 177N 1139W 64 X 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) 48 186N 1140W 34 1 14(15) 34(49) 13(62) 9(71) 2(73) X(73) 48 186N 1140W 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 10(26) 7(33) 1(34) 1(35) 48 186N 1140W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) 72 205N 1130W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 22(45) 6(51) 1(52) 72 205N 1130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 3(19) X(19) 72 205N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 96 215N 1115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 18(25) 9(34) 2(36) 96 215N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 96 215N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 120 220N 1100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 3(22) 120 220N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 120 220N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 70 75 75 70 60 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN