000 FOPZ12 KNHC 232042 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 2100 UTC MON JUL 23 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 12(30) 8(38) X(38) 1(39) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 161N 1099W 34 23 27(50) 3(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) 12 161N 1099W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 161N 1099W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 172N 1107W 34 1 31(32) 14(46) 5(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) 24 172N 1107W 50 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 24 172N 1107W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 180N 1114W 34 X 9( 9) 26(35) 11(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53) 36 180N 1114W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 36 180N 1114W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 188N 1121W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 16(34) 13(47) 1(48) 1(49) 48 188N 1121W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) 48 188N 1121W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 205N 1140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 6(36) 1(37) 72 205N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 72 205N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 96 223N 1163W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) 96 223N 1163W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 96 223N 1163W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 240N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 120 240N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 240N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 55 45 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN