000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222034 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 2100 UTC SUN JUL 22 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 7(22) 3(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 3(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 132N 1083W 34 16 12(28) 2(30) 2(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 12 132N 1083W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 132N 1083W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 138N 1097W 34 1 23(24) 11(35) 4(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) 24 138N 1097W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 138N 1097W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 143N 1105W 34 X 12(12) 17(29) 8(37) 5(42) 2(44) 1(45) 36 143N 1105W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 36 143N 1105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 48 151N 1111W 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 12(30) 12(42) 3(45) 1(46) 48 151N 1111W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 48 151N 1111W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 72 170N 1125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20(29) 9(38) 2(40) 72 170N 1125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 72 170N 1125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 96 190N 1145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 4(26) 96 190N 1145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 96 190N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 210N 1175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 120 210N 1175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 210N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 35 40 45 55 60 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN