000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220839 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 0900 UTC SUN JUL 22 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 4(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 132N 1073W 34 14 11(25) 2(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 12 132N 1073W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 132N 1073W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 136N 1088W 34 1 23(24) 11(35) 3(38) 3(41) 1(42) 1(43) 24 136N 1088W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 24 136N 1088W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 138N 1101W 34 X 9( 9) 20(29) 8(37) 4(41) 2(43) 1(44) 36 138N 1101W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) 36 138N 1101W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 142N 1110W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 12(30) 10(40) 2(42) 2(44) 48 142N 1110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 48 142N 1110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 155N 1120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 13(28) 7(35) 2(37) 72 155N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 72 155N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 175N 1135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 5(24) 96 175N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 96 175N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 200N 1160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 120 200N 1160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 200N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 35 40 45 50 50 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI