000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 X 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) HUATABAMPO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 7 35(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LOS MOCHIS 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN