000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120250 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) P ABREOJOS 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HERMOSILLO 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HERMOSILLO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 5 35(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GUAYMAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE