000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050854 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 16(21) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 4 27(31) 47(78) 15(93) 2(95) 1(96) X(96) 15N 125W 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 27(60) 6(66) 3(69) X(69) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 7(15) 19(34) 25(59) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG