000 FOPZ11 KNHC 271445 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 7 16 24 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 9 18 29 40 46 NA TROPICAL STORM 86 77 67 57 42 30 NA HURRICANE 13 13 11 7 2 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 13 10 7 2 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 1 67(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 145W 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE