000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040858 PWSEP1 HURRICANE HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 85 10(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 28 28(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 84 12(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAN JOSE CABO 50 24 33(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SAN JOSE CABO 64 2 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 20 58(78) 4(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) LA PAZ 50 X 26(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LA PAZ 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 3 13(16) 25(41) 7(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) LORETO 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 14(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 2 13(15) 26(41) 7(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 25(28) 15(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULICAN 34 8 43(51) 6(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CULICAN 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 225N 1096W 34 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 225N 1096W 50 58 14(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 12 225N 1096W 64 15 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 24 245N 1102W 34 12 61(73) 6(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) 24 245N 1102W 50 X 24(24) 6(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 24 245N 1102W 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 264N 1106W 34 3 18(21) 30(51) 7(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) 36 264N 1106W 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 36 264N 1106W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 284N 1104W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 15(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) 48 284N 1104W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 284N 1104W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 310N 1090W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 310N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 310N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 65 65 45 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI