000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040251 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 29 52(81) 3(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 36(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 20 55(75) 4(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 3 42(45) 18(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) LA PAZ 50 X 9( 9) 13(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) LA PAZ 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 12(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) LORETO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 2 18(20) 11(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) CULICAN 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 216N 1095W 34 93 4(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 216N 1095W 50 50 15(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 12 216N 1095W 64 15 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 24 232N 1101W 34 13 61(74) 6(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) 24 232N 1101W 50 X 30(30) 6(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 24 232N 1101W 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 36 249N 1107W 34 2 22(24) 23(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) 36 249N 1107W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 36 249N 1107W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 267N 1108W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) 48 267N 1108W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 267N 1108W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 305N 1099W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 305N 1099W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 305N 1099W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 70 55 55 25 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN