000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032052 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 6 57(63) 13(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 18(18) 11(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 50(54) 14(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 11(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 2 21(23) 30(53) 10(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 24(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 13(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 11(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 2 7( 9) 13(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CULICAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 209N 1092W 34 93 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 209N 1092W 50 48 12(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 12 209N 1092W 64 13 6(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 24 223N 1102W 34 13 65(78) 7(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 24 223N 1102W 50 X 32(32) 9(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 24 223N 1102W 64 X 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 36 238N 1109W 34 2 27(29) 32(61) 8(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) 36 238N 1109W 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 36 238N 1109W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 48 254N 1112W 34 1 4( 5) 21(26) 21(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) 48 254N 1112W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 48 254N 1112W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 295N 1110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 72 295N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 295N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 70 70 55 30 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME