000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 32(34) 27(61) 6(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 26(28) 24(52) 6(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 8( 9) 26(35) 15(50) 7(57) 1(58) X(58) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 21(41) 2(43) X(43) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 14(23) 2(25) X(25) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 9(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 202N 1086W 34 89 7(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 202N 1086W 50 43 18(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 12 202N 1086W 64 6 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 24 214N 1098W 34 12 65(77) 10(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) 24 214N 1098W 50 1 35(36) 13(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 24 214N 1098W 64 X 12(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 36 227N 1107W 34 2 29(31) 35(66) 8(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) 36 227N 1107W 50 X 5( 5) 23(28) 8(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) 36 227N 1107W 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 48 243N 1113W 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 21(51) 11(62) 1(63) X(63) 48 243N 1113W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) 48 243N 1113W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 280N 1115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 3(25) X(25) 72 280N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 280N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 320N 1105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 96 320N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 320N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60 70 75 70 50 25 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB