000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030256 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 10(13) 39(52) 15(67) 4(71) 1(72) X(72) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 13(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 8(11) 35(46) 16(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 24(46) 11(57) 1(58) X(58) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 3(31) X(31) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) X(18) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 4(22) X(22) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 12(23) 2(25) X(25) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 11(22) 10(32) 1(33) X(33) CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SAN BLAS 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 11(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 195N 1078W 34 92 4(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 195N 1078W 50 58 16(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 12 195N 1078W 64 28 12(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 24 206N 1089W 34 20 59(79) 11(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 24 206N 1089W 50 2 41(43) 14(57) 1(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) 24 206N 1089W 64 X 19(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 36 219N 1099W 34 3 28(31) 39(70) 9(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) 36 219N 1099W 50 X 6( 6) 29(35) 9(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) 36 219N 1099W 64 X 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 48 235N 1107W 34 1 6( 7) 26(33) 23(56) 9(65) 1(66) X(66) 48 235N 1107W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) 48 235N 1107W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 72 270N 1110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 5(26) X(26) 72 270N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 270N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 320N 1100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 96 320N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 320N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 85 75 55 25 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN