000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) X(22) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 19(50) 12(62) 1(63) X(63) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 20(45) 12(57) 2(59) X(59) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) 22(49) 4(53) X(53) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 8(36) X(36) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 6(24) X(24) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15(20) 4(24) X(24) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 17(27) 3(30) X(30) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 191N 1074W 34 89 7(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 191N 1074W 50 56 16(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 12 191N 1074W 64 31 11(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 24 201N 1086W 34 7 68(75) 12(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) 24 201N 1086W 50 1 39(40) 14(54) 1(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) 24 201N 1086W 64 X 19(19) 9(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 36 213N 1097W 34 1 22(23) 44(67) 9(76) 3(79) 1(80) X(80) 36 213N 1097W 50 X 5( 5) 29(34) 9(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) 36 213N 1097W 64 X 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 48 226N 1106W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 22(55) 14(69) 1(70) X(70) 48 226N 1106W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) 48 226N 1106W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 72 255N 1115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 26(35) 7(42) X(42) 72 255N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 72 255N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 305N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 96 305N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 305N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 85 75 65 40 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME