000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020841 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 1(21) X(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 28(29) 30(59) 9(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 7(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 187N 1082W 34 90 5(95) 1(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 187N 1082W 50 50 17(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 12 187N 1082W 64 31 12(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 24 192N 1095W 34 13 62(75) 11(86) 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) 24 192N 1095W 50 1 39(40) 12(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) 24 192N 1095W 64 1 19(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 36 198N 1108W 34 1 28(29) 36(65) 11(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) 36 198N 1108W 50 X 7( 7) 26(33) 10(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) 36 198N 1108W 64 X 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 48 208N 1121W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 25(56) 13(69) 1(70) X(70) 48 208N 1121W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) 48 208N 1121W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 72 234N 1141W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 6(42) 1(43) 72 234N 1141W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) 72 234N 1141W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 260N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) 96 260N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 96 260N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 290N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 120 290N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 290N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 80 80 70 50 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB