000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020244 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 16(16) 23(39) 7(46) 4(50) X(50) 1(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 189N 1076W 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 189N 1076W 50 45 19(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 12 189N 1076W 64 16 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 24 194N 1090W 34 17 62(79) 7(86) 1(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) 24 194N 1090W 50 1 36(37) 11(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 24 194N 1090W 64 X 17(17) 8(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 36 201N 1103W 34 X 33(33) 32(65) 7(72) 3(75) 1(76) X(76) 36 201N 1103W 50 X 4( 4) 24(28) 6(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 36 201N 1103W 64 X 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 48 210N 1115W 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 18(52) 10(62) 1(63) X(63) 48 210N 1115W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) 48 210N 1115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 72 230N 1130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20(35) 6(41) 1(42) 72 230N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) 72 230N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 255N 1140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 3(20) 96 255N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 96 255N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 290N 1140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 120 290N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 290N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 75 75 70 65 50 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN