000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 1(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 8( 8) 24(32) 12(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 188N 1068W 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 188N 1068W 50 43 19(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 12 188N 1068W 64 15 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 24 195N 1085W 34 8 72(80) 6(86) 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) 24 195N 1085W 50 X 36(36) 12(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 24 195N 1085W 64 X 17(17) 7(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 36 200N 1100W 34 1 31(32) 34(66) 8(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) 36 200N 1100W 50 X 5( 5) 23(28) 7(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) 36 200N 1100W 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 48 205N 1115W 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 22(55) 9(64) 2(66) X(66) 48 205N 1115W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 7(28) X(28) 1(29) 48 205N 1115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) 72 220N 1135W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 22(39) 6(45) 1(46) 72 220N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) 72 220N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 96 240N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 1(25) 96 240N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 96 240N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 270N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 120 270N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 270N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 75 75 75 70 60 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA