000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010857 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 2(23) 1(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 3(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 13 15(28) 4(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 13 9(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 13(33) 3(36) 2(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 181N 1046W 34 84 5(89) X(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 12 181N 1046W 50 16 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 12 181N 1046W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 188N 1062W 34 6 56(62) 11(73) 2(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) 24 188N 1062W 50 X 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 24 188N 1062W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 194N 1078W 34 1 15(16) 40(56) 9(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 36 194N 1078W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) 36 194N 1078W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 199N 1093W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 22(50) 10(60) 1(61) X(61) 48 199N 1093W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 6(23) X(23) 1(24) 48 199N 1093W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 72 210N 1115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 21(37) 6(43) 1(44) 72 210N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) 72 210N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 225N 1135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) 1(24) 96 225N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 96 225N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 250N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 120 250N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 250N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 55 65 70 70 60 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI