000 FOPZ11 KNHC 312033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) 2(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25) 1(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 2(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) 8(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X 11(11) 22(33) 6(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 8 20(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 11 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 1(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 11(29) 2(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 169N 1023W 34 43 17(60) 1(61) X(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 12 169N 1023W 50 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 12 169N 1023W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 180N 1040W 34 X 43(43) 14(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 24 180N 1040W 50 X 11(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 24 180N 1040W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 188N 1055W 34 X 8( 8) 37(45) 10(55) 4(59) 1(60) X(60) 36 188N 1055W 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) 36 188N 1055W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 48 195N 1070W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 23(43) 13(56) 1(57) X(57) 48 195N 1070W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) 48 195N 1070W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 210N 1100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) 8(40) 2(42) 72 210N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 72 210N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 230N 1120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 3(24) 96 230N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 96 230N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 245N 1135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 120 245N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 245N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 55 65 70 70 65 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA